ISS 2019_Duncan Meldrum_Hilltop Economics_Abstract

An Economic Backdrop (or Two) for Semiconductors

Duncan Meldrum
Chief Economist, Hilltop Economics LLC

As semiconductors enter a golden age, the global economy enters a period of rising uncertainty. Backsliding on the trend to free trade, rising pressures from different monetary policy trends, tapped-out labor markets and growing social divides compound to threaten the long, slow recovery that has been in place since the financial crisis. While the consensus anticipates real GDP growth to ease from its peak of 3.2% in 2018 to its long-term trend of 2.7% by 2021, the possibility of a recession developing in that time frame also exists. This talk will examine the forces leading to these two possible outlooks. In the current economic climate, strategy should anticipate the trend outlook but also include contingencies against the recession alternative